COMPREHENSIVE POLITICAL FACTS AND ANALYSIS
NOTE:
This
article will be broken up into
several smaller articles to
discuss the various issues
addressed
I
am not a democrat... I am not a
republican... I am simply
an American
I don't give a hoot about
any political party.
I believe in
enacting and promoting
effective policies that
promote the welfare of our
country, our people and future
generations...
This can only possible
with well considered, forward
looking reasoned policy.
BUT... WHAT IS A GOOD POLICY?
Many would simply answer... "If
it's good for me, that's a good
policy!"
Even if you think it
sounds like a GREAT IDEA, as we
show below, you may find that it
is the worst thing possible for
you.
No matter how great policies may
look, they must be analyzed for
long term consequences.
Without doing so there is no way
to even guess degree to which
they may help or damage you,
your friends, family, children,
boss or to meaningfully
anticipate and prepare their
impact
(for good or bad),
on our society and culture.
As members of this society it is
incumbent on each of us to spend
a little time time and effort to
thoughtfully, fully and honestly
considered
the
possible
unintended consequences
of the policies we want to
support.
Many of the important policies
that affect us all will be
discuss in detail in the other
links and articles. More will
constantly be added including
the below.
|
Taxation |
Unintended Consequences |
Voting |
|
Trust Our Leaders? |
Immigration |
Bumper Sticker Politics |
|
Dem Voters v. Dem
Leaders |
The Dirtiest of Politics |
Beware of Gifts (Mao,
hitler, chavez) |
FACTUAL STARTING POINT
With almost no exception,
every government policy
benefits some while
hurting others.
That's why even a policy that
on its face, sounds like a
Godsend, something on which it
would seem
everyone would agree... it will still
face opposition.
Whether
a policy is good or bad is not
always easily determined...
Voting for a "well
intentioned" policy has little
bearing on outcome.
A well intended but uninformed vote is
similar to a blind man with a
loaded gun firing into a large
crowd because his intent
was to eliminate a serial killer.
What matters was not our good
intentions but rather who we
actually hit. An uninformed vote
puts everyone at risk.
Thing about it... Who hasn't
voted for someone
something and
lived to regret it?!
One way or another,
the potential for these cascading, unanticipated
consequences must be factored
into the calculus of every government
policy!
PROTECT OUR THROATS
Absent taking a moment to
apprehend the proposal, we will eventually
find ourselves supporting what
we thought was a dream come true,
only to later
awake to the unsettling realization
that we had actually done was to
assist in the future
slitting our own economic
throats. Regardless of how
exciting or appealing a policy
may sound, if not
fully thought through, it can
result in the worst possible
outcome.
No matter how great
a policy seems, analysis of
likely consequences
must be determined.
EXAMPLE: $50
Dollar an Hour raise!
Imagine... It's your day off and
you
just received incredible news.
Your state just mandated that
all employees are to be given an
immediate $50 an
hour pay raise!
You immediately start
thinking about that new car
you've been wanting. You
decide to move to a better
neighborhood for your family.
Life is looking up!
What
a fantastic law! Who
wouldn't support a policy like
this? Why didn't anyone
think of
this before!?
You, excitedly get up the next
morning drive to work and every moment
you spent envisioning the many ways
your life was about to change...
and you were right!
You arrive at the job site only
to find the doors locked and a note from the owner letting employees know that he is closing shop because
with the new minimum wage law,
The owner will actually earn more
by working for someone else!... and he won't have the headaches
of borrowing to make payroll, dealing with employee
personalities,
office expenses, government regulations,
payroll taxes, etc...
You think to yourself, no big
deal! I'll just find a job somewhere else...
You drive of with visions of $50
dollar sugar plums dancing in
your head...
Unfortunately,
it seems your boss wasn't the only one who decided to
trade in the countless headaches,
long hours, financial risks and
inconsistent income levels that go
hand in hand with self employment.
During your job search you found
many prospective new workplaces
had also closed.
Numerous owners of the companies in your field also made the decision to
close shop and work for someone else.
Like the first days of the stock
market crash and great depression, the
world turned upside down overnight.
(A great sounding
but unwise, ill advised policy really
can do that).
The wrong policy can change us
from a nation with full
employment and wages from low to
obscene, to a nation in which
everyone with a job earns, at
least, $50 an hour,
but very few
jobs exist because most companies
can't afford the mandated high
wages and the companies that
do still exist
are
investing as much into
automation as possible.
The $50 an hour policy sounded
great... but was a disaster...
No one properly considered the unanticipated consequences
of such high wages.
In this environment, finding a new job
would be all but impossible. Thanks to the
increased minimum wage, the companies that didn't close will do every thing they can to avoid adding new employees.
In fact, even
companies that did
not close; to remain open and profitable, they would have to do everything possible to
reduce expenses. With the explosion of labor expenses owners would have no choice but to seriously consider laying off all
but the most productive employees.
Otherwise, soon EVERYONE will be unemployed!
No policy can honestly
be considered or good or bad
without analyzing term
consequences.
Good Policy is
generally determined by long term
consequences and analysis of two
factors:
1. The number
whose lives and freedoms are
benefited vs. those that are
harmed.
2. The degree
of the benefit vs. the
magnitude
of the harm to others.
Good or Bad always
depends on the specifics of
where the policy is to be
enacted.
Example 1:
A small tourist town on the
coast
(Sea City), which has a
total of 2,000 employees, raises
it's minimum wage from
$12 an hour to $20.
Thanks
to the constant traffic of new
customers that constantly flow
in from all over the state, the
businesses have always been
profitable. Every
single employee was for it and
ecstatic when it passed!
The owners all opposed it, were
not happy with its passage and
do in fact now have slightly
lower profit margins.
However, they can still afford
their homes, cars, boats, etc...
This policy provided a
substantial benefit
to every
employee in the town. They
had more money, so they spent
more... often even at their
employer's businesses.
They could not afford to buy
their own homes, thus spurring
the local housing marketing,
resulting in more building, more
construction jobs, more revenues
to the local government, etc...
and because they even spent more
at their places of work, it
actually partially offset the
effect the wage increase had on
their employer's profits.
It still lowered the bottom line
income of every business owner
in the town. However, it
caused no business closures, no
loss of homes or other assets.
The policy benefited everyone
but the business owners.
However, under the
circumstances, what they
suffered was little more than a
slight inconvenience.
I WOULD CALL THIS AN
EFFECTIVE
POLICY.
Example 2:
A town in the middle of nowhere
heard about the
(Sea City) policy. It
wanted to emulate the Sea City
miracle. It too,
has
total of 2,000 employees and
raised it's minimum wage from
$12 an hour to $20.
Because the town is isolated,
all owners rely almost solely on
the local population and
goodwill to stay in business.
At that time none of the businesses
were in
danger of folding but are only
modestly profitable.
When the proposal was made, the
owners mounted a vehement
opposition warning of dire
consequences.
Nevertheless, each and every
employee was for it and ecstatic
when it passed! The
owners were not happy with its
passage and are now struggling
to keep the doors open.
This policy provided an
IMMEDIATE
substantial benefit
to every
employee in the town. As
hard as they tried, the business
owner simply could not absorb
the 67% increase in labor costs.
Because the town's businesses
operated on small profit margins
and a limited market bases,
within 30 days of enactment, 10%
of the town's workforce was laid
off and of those who kept their
jobs, 40% had their hours cut.
Long term cascade of
consequences:
Many employees could no longer
afford their rent; resulting in
many landlords missing their
loan payments, forcing many into
foreclosure, resulting in below
value distress sales, lower
housing market, resulting in
lowered real estate values,
that results in the loss of
property tax revenues, less
construction jobs and loss of
net worth of all
homeowners.
All of this doesn't even take
into account the additional
consequences resulting from the
numerous business closures that
is inevitable.
-
Loses all
sales
taxes normally receive from this company sales.
-
Loses all
Income
taxes normally received from the business owner profits.
-
Loses
all income tax
revenue normally received from
each and every company employee.
I think we'd all agree that
even though the policies
were identical... THIS WAS A
BAD POLICY. We had the
same policy but vastly
different results.
Remember...
No policy can honestly
be considered or good or bad
without analyzing term
consequences.
THE FIRST RULE TO UNDERSTANDING
POLICY
Government can give nothing...
until it has taken from someone
else.
-
The government can
give to you only what it has
taken from someone else.
-
Every
current or new program
or increase in public
benefits requires that
more revenues
be raised from
loans or new
taxation
of the public; you, your
family, friends,
neighbors, etc...
-
Taxation via
"Deficit Spending" i.e.
Loans: The
public likes freebies
and entitlements.
The politicians like
their jobs and want the
votes that "giving away
stuff" gets them.
CAUSES
INFLATION... Sound
Familiar?
-
Strategy Hide
the Tax: In
order provide even more
benefits to "buy" them
more votes, while
avoiding tax increases
and their political
fallout, they borrow.
They get what they need by
borrowing from China or
even our own citizens
via (bonds) but they
must be repaid and with
interest. So, what
did the politicians
really accomplish?
-
They
made things worse.
Example: $100 is
borrowed and $110 must
be repaid. So the
government avoided
the need for an
immediate
tax increase and
in doing so it
assured an even more
compelling need for
revenues in the future.
-
Moral
of the Story?-
There is no such thing as a
free lunch. Any
politician who tells you
otherwise is lying to you.
If a friend tells you, they
are misinformed.
Do them a favor and
take a few minutes to
enlighten them.
THINK
FIRST... CHOOSE LATER
What You Need to Know:
Neither this site nor articles are partisan in intent.
It's important to realize
that no matter how certain
we may be, there really are
two "reasonable"
sides to almost every issue.
Only by taking a moment
examine both sides is it
possible to understand it.
First and foremost our goal is
to provide empirical, verifiable
sources and unequivocal facts
that are vital to understanding
the wide array of far reaching
issues and policies that effect
us all.
You may find
disagreement, but you will not find
partisanship, dogma or
propaganda.
The Dangers of
Bumper Sticker Partisan Politics-
In the world of politics
the more emotional an
issue, the more
vehement the shouts become
on a host of issues that
are both polarizing and
complicated. Even
so, they are often
reduced to little more
than mindless one line
slogans that are
intended to evoke
emotions rather than
promote rational
thought or consideration.
A
few examples; Living
wage, war on women, tax
the rich, free education
for all, right to life,
right to choose,
etc...
Each of the many issues
discussed are important
and deserve deep consideration,
analysis, debate and
workable solutions
that actually
accomplish something... not
just
mindless feel good knee jerk
reactions that are so
commonplace and so
useless.
How, can we rationally
debate or discuss minutia
or successfully wade
though
complex issues when they
are routinely reduced to
little more than simple
evocative
slogans that are presented
as if
there's no point in
talking because no
debate exists?
Have you ever heard
anything like this?...
"The debate is over!",
"The science settled!",
"Raise Taxes!",
"Lower Taxes!", "build
the wall!", "open
boarders", etc...
Let's be
honest... if the debates
are really settled...
Why
are they still debated?
IS THERE REALLY A SMART
SIDE?
Consider, is it really
true that one side of
the political spectrum
consists of mostly
racist, cold hearted,
selfish, scientific
illiterates?...
And the other is mostly
enlightened, accepting,
highly educated,
unbiased, rational
thinkers?
OR... Is it possible
that for years the
powers that be have, for
their own purposes been
successfully
orchestrating a campaign
of racial and cultural
division?
Maybe... Maybe not...
Or is this a
possibility?
Most of us are just
good people with
competing interests and
priorities?
Could two equally
charitable,
compassionate people (A
& B), each as loving and
caring as the other;
could they have
differing but equally
noble priorities and
objectives? Of
course. But like
two friends competing
for the same promotion
or in love with the same
woman; conflict and hard
feelings are all but
certain.
Conflicting priorities
and objectives often
create conflict,
severe conflict and
political
hacks reducing them to
emotionally charged
slogans does not
contribute to the actual
understanding of the
problem...
they make
things worse.
Only when we can move
beyond the blinding
emotional aspects of an
issue and acknowledge
there may be another
side, a side that is
actually reasonable and
even caring, is it
possible to see clearly
and consider objective
relevant facts to
finding an effective
policy. Only then
can we possibly take
into account the full
range of logical
consequences which is
essential to the
creation of any
effective policy.
Our goal is to
focus on facts, policy,
the reality of competing
objectives and the
logical consequences
that can be expected.
IS THAT REALLY SO
UNREASONABLE?
Everyone wants what they
want... and in many
cases what they want is
completely reasonable,
noble and even generally
desirable for the
country.
Where problems
arise is this fact:
Unfortunately, as
discussed above, to one
degree or another, every
government policy
benefits some while
hurting others.
Often policy that fully
addresses the desires of
A,
necessarily results in
an unintended but
unavoidable
massive loss
to
B.
A few samples of
well intended policies
with unintended effects:
Samples below are
provided with no opinion
of the merits on either
side.
No rational thinking
person can fail to see
merits of each person's
position above.
Neither position is
irrational, each totally
understandable... But
it's equally obvious
that both sides getting
exactly what
they want is impossible!
Situations such as these
are often the genesis of
massive division, animus
and what seems like
insurmountable conflict.
HOW TO SOLVE ANY
ISSUE!--
A simple fact...
You can't. Sometimes
a perfect
solution is not
possible! In many
cases the best that can
be hoped for is a
reasonable compromise.
To the extent even
compromise is possible
is dependent on a number
of vital factors.
1. Understand
both sides of the issue.
We must have a basic
understanding of
both the current
position of the effected
parties
AND
both the benefits and
harms that would result
from a proposed policy.
Only then we
effectively balance the
interests of the parties
against the harm done to
each.
2. The desire to
actually solve the
problem!
Unfortunately, often
those charged with
creating policy often
have limited motive to
do so.
WHAT IS THE
INCENTIVE TO DO THE
RIGHT THING?
Consider, when an
attorney solves his
client's problem by
prevailing in court, by
solving his problems, by
doing so he also lost a
dependable source of
income. The
problem is solved so the
client no longer needs
him and won't... unless
he becomes aware of
another legal need.
Similarly, as long as a
politician is seen as
"fighting" to repair a
social ill, say poverty,
he is assured of a
consistent voting block
of those who perceive
themselves with that
problem.
Now, what if?...
A policy is implemented
that made it easier and
faster to escape from
government dependence to
achieve the ranks of the
working tax paying
middle class.
The problem of crushing
poverty is solved!
However,
the ex poor have a new
problem... how to keep
more of what they
earned.
Might there be a
realignment of voting
patterns?
Like the
attorney who lost
income, might this
political party lose
voters?
Is it possible the
leaders of that party
had ever considered the
repercussions of
success?
IS THE GOAL POWER OR
SOLUTIONS?
I have no illusions of
enlightening our political
leaders. The fact is
most are aware of every fact
we'll present.
Furthermore, off the
record, most would even
acknowledge them.
Nevertheless, in public they
continue to spout the same
divisive rhetoric that got
them elected in the first
place. Why? Remember,
just like you and I, all
politicians are human, self
interested and imperfect.
They like their jobs and
creating and continuing
division, creates and
maintains the VOTING BLOCKS
they need to get and remain
in power.
For example- Ask
yourself:
When is the last time you
heard a republican
politician say we must raise
taxes? Or a Democrat
say the taxes are too high
and must be lowered!
OPTIONS CHANGE AS DO
CIRCUMSTANCES
What works today may not be
a viable option tomorrow.
A nice, cozy, warm leather
jacket is great... but
wearing it all day in sunny
105 degree weather may kill
you! We all
understand that different
circumstances require
different actions.
So why is it that regardless
of circumstances, on this
issue, the refrain is
always
the same? It's
because on the issue of
taxes, the goal is not
always to achieve the best
result but rather to gain or
retain political power.
If the republican
says a tax increase is in
order, he just alienated a
powerful voting block and by
being honest put his job at
risk. On the
other hand...
If a democrat says
the economy is week and a
tax decrease is in order to
jump start it, he just
alienated a powerful
democratic voting block and
by being honest put his job
at risk.
If the issue is solved, a
compromise accomplished that
all can live with, what
happens?
Their power is in jeopardy
because they've lost their
lock on the block of voters
that supported them because
However, politically they
can always be overcome, but
often the political leaders
have a vested issue in not
solving it.
The right policies,
effective well thought out
solutions are always good
for the country... But not
necessarily good for
individual politicians or
their party.
Whether your political bent is
to the left or right, you will
probably be exposed to never
before seen facts, analysis and
insights.
Some
will be welcome, some
infuriating... But all true.
Unfortunately, honest
inquire into deep, complicated
and controversial issues often
results in surprises that
challenge long held cherished
beliefs.
But
it is our goal to provide facts
and truth, no matter where it
leads.
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